Knowing that it’s been about a week and a half of MLB games and about 9 games for each team doesn’t seem to mean much. But research has shown that after 16 or 17 games there can be a sign that a team is going somewhere.
We know from last year that Oakland is a team to watch, even if they didn’t do much during the offseason. (I’m not sure they ever will!) They’re certainly off to a good start and aren’t intimidated by the Angels’ moves, having won their last two road games in Anaheim. Through much research, it was shown that they can have a good record at the end of the year and look like a playoff team if they continue this route with a 7-2 record.
Kansas City is also off to a strong start with a 6-3 record. They have certainly been a team that we expected a lot more from as their young prospects have had a few years with them. Now, by following Baseball Prospectus’ Extra Innings guide, we can predict how well they’ll do this year. (Maybe…)
Now if we look at Oakland’s last three seasons, we can predict that they would win 83 games this year just on average. Going through Kansas City’s last three seasons, we’d say they would have 70 wins. From the book Extra Innings, they explained how after 16-17 games into the season, we might be able to be 49% accurate on what the final season record will be. (This goes back to 1962!)
The 49% accuracy is very important to remember, as the A’s did not get off to a great start to the 2012 season. They only went 7-9 in their first 16 games. If anyone could guess how the team would do for the rest of the season, we would all assume it would be pretty average and it would be highly unlikely that the team would have much of a chance of making the playoffs. But, only 2 years ago a team showed from the beginning where their team would go.
Let’s go with an example from the book…
“In fact, the 2011 Diamondbacks are actually another example. After their tremendous 2007, the Snakes fell to 82 wins in 2008, 70 in 2007 and 65 in 2010. Last season, however, the D’backs bounced back after bringing in Kevin Towers as his new GM Towers’ bullpen makeover, Justin Upton’s emergence as a true superstar and an unexpectedly strong 1-2 hit from Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson pushed his team to an 11-2 start. 6 (an expectation of 93 wins) and 94 eventual wins.”
Now these numbers are certainly for mathematicians, as I was thinking of adding up the last 3 seasons for the A’s and Royals, then projecting their win probability and splitting their possible wins after 17 games, but then I got a headache. I’m not even sure how these numbers fascinate me so much when math was my least favorite subject! But anyway, the point is that if these two teams continue their hot starts, we shouldn’t be surprised if they’re in the playoff surge. As I said before, there is a 49% chance, so I would expect one of them to compete if we see him win more in his next 7 or 8 games.