Talk about a choke job. Tom Brady, Mr. Clutch, Mr. Postseason, Mr. Best-QB-Ever-When-The-Game-Is-On-The-Line fell short on Sunday against the Jets in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Brady lost his third straight playoff game, his second straight at home, with all three losses coming against an underdog. If this was who, this game would be just another example of his inability to pull off big moments. But since this is Tom Brady, what do we hear? Belichick was outclassed as a coach. Patriots receivers were covered. Anything to absolve Brady of blame for Sunday’s loss.
What I can tell you about yesterday’s game is that Tom Brady looked like Jim (or Chris) Everett reincarnated. Twice I saw Brady crouch down, sensing the pass rush when no one was around him. On another occasion, he actually looked back as he reached into his pocket mid-play to see if he was about to get hit. Throughout the game, he overreacted to pressure, like a rookie playing for the first time.
What made Tom Brady and the Patriots so good all season? His short passing game. Wes Welker in the slot, Danny Woodhead out of the backfield, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in midfield, Deion Branch on the outside. What did all these receivers have in common? They all caught the ball near the line of scrimmage. Tom Brady was surgical all season, shredding defenses with short passes on a regular basis. On Sunday, however, he did not take what they gave him. He held on to the ball, looking for the big play one too many times. He played a different game than the one he played for most of 2010. Is it safe to say that the moment got too big for him? No, not Tom Brady.
The Patriots’ 7+ minute long drive in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 10 points, was a defining moment in this game. The long haul not only ate up half of the quarter, but yielded no points. Why? I’m glad you asked. On 2 and 10 from the Jets 31-yard line, the Patriots were in field goal range. Tom Brady dropped back to pass, moved in the pocket to avoid the pressure, and was stared right in the face by Wes Welker about 10-15 yards down the middle of the field. However, Tom Brady did not throw it. He easily could have done it and he should have done it. He had time. Instead, he was timid and took a sack.
On the next play, it was 3rd and 13 at the 34-yard line. The Patriots were now out of comfortable field goal range. A 51-yarder at Foxborough is no easy feat. The Pats needed to make up the yardage Brady had lost to them to get back into field goal range. They lined up with a group formation to the right. Two receivers ran vertical routes, almost as picks for Wes Welker, the third receiver in the group. Welker ran to the floor, wide open. This is where Brady was looking. This is where the play was designed to go. But Brady didn’t throw it away. He held on to the ball, looking for a bigger play. He danced in the pocket for what seemed like 30 minutes before firing another incompletion pass. The Jets were giving the Patriots half of the 13 yards needed for first down on this play, but Brady didn’t take it, leaving his team in poor shape.
At this point, it was 4th down and 13 at the 34-yard line. The Pats could go for the 51-yard field goal or try to make a 4th-and-13. Not an ideal situation with their season on the line. They decided to go for it. Deion Branch ran an isolation route against Antonio Cromartie, and won. Brady saw Branch and pulled the trigger. The season was at stake. This was the kind of moment Tom “Clutch” has always been through… Only not this time. Brady fired a missed pass, a terrible pass, to a wide-open receiver. He was incomplete. A turnover in declines. 5 minutes later, the game was over, as was New England’s season.
Yeah, the Jets had a good game plan defensively. They used a passive approach with lots of hybrid man/zone coverage. But Brady still had wide receivers the entire game. So what happened then? Is it fair to say that Brady failed the clutch? You might think I’m exaggerating a bit, trying to tell all those New England fans who thought a fourth Lombardi Trophy was a foregone conclusion. But let’s think seriously about this argument. Is Tom Brady really the key quarterback he’s supposed to be, or has he just always been given a free pass for poor performances at crunch time due to his 3 Super Bowl rings? Rings he won earlier in his career when he played in the league’s best team annually. Let’s look at some numbers.
Brady career regular season numbers: 63.6 completion percentage, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 95.2 QB rating. Brady’s Playoff career numbers: 62.2 completion percentage, 6.5 yards per pass, 85.7 QB rating. (Just to let you know, Peyton Manning in his playoff career has a 63.1 completion percentage, 7.51 yards per attempt, and an 88.4 rating.)
In Brady’s last 9 postseason games, the Patriots are 4-5. He has thrown 16 TDs, 13 INTs and has a QB rating of 80.6. By contrast, Matt Hasselbeck over that same span of time has led the Seahawks to a 5-4 playoff record, with 16 TDs, 7 INTs and an 85.6 rating. I guess Brady stopped clutching since 2004. Or at least he did it less than Hasselbeck.
In Tom Brady’s regular season run with the game on the line (4th quarter and scoring within 7 points), he has a QB rating of 82.6, well below his overall regular season rating of 95.2 (Note to margin: Peyton Manning has a 91.3 career rating going into the 4th quarter with the game within 7 points. He also has thirty-six 4th quarter come-from-behind wins compared to Brady who has 20).
If you want to say that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, or the greatest quarterback of all time, or even that he’s better than Peyton Manning, the win-loss argument is the best way to go. But that to me is just funny. Quarterback might be the single most impactful position in football. But he’s no more impactful than a complete offensive or defensive unit. Games don’t simply come down to who has the better quarterback. Is there a correlation? Sometimes. But there is no direct line of causation here. The TEAM that plays better wins 99% of the time.
If it really were true that wins and losses determine which quarterbacks are better than others, then you would have to say that Tom Brady from 2001 to 2004 was a better quarterback than Tom Brady from 2005 to 2010. Think about it, he won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years from 2001 to 2004 instead of none in his last 6 seasons. But clearly, that is stupid to believe. Brady is undoubtedly a better QB now than he was at the start of his career.
So what does all this say, other than that the media is full of it and creating false narratives to come up with a better story? He says that soccer is the best team game. He says that the notion of “clutch” is greatly exaggerated. And he says that despite all the arguments I just made against him, Tom Brady is still one of the top 5 quarterbacks of all time. He might even be the second best of all time. But who is number one? Rex Ryan knows the answer.